Since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March of 2022, there has been a pitched battle of “chicken” between the Fed and the average consumer. The Fed began raising rates about a year after inflation started a dramatic climb to its highest level in some 41 years. Those rate hikes have amounted to five percentage points on the Fed's benchmark to a level not seen since 2007. As a result, all sorts of loans tied to short-term interest rates have skyrocketed. These include credit card rates, home equity lines of credit, car loans, personal loans, and business loans.

The Fed has done its best to force higher borrowing rates on individuals and corporations in the hope that meaningful layoffs will follow, thus driving inflation down over time by lessening demand for products and services. What the Fed did not count on was the resilience of the U.S. consumer, who is experiencing solid wage growth and continues to spend on travel and dining out. Learn more about 2Q2023 and what may be ahead in remainder of 2023.

The S&P 500 ended the first quarter of 2023 with a solid gain as hopes for an economic “soft landing” gave confidence to investors that enough damage had been done to stock prices in 2022 and that the Federal Reserve would soon stop moving the interest rate “goal posts.” However, stock and bond markets were volatile during the period as investors wrestled with the Fed’s ongoing proclamations regarding the timing and magnitude of further interest rate hikes. Despite the biggest bank failures since the financial crisis taking place during the quarter, Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained his hawkish position regarding inflation and the need to further tighten financial conditions to curb consumer demand for goods and services. Read more from Senior Investment Strategist Dave Nolan on his 1Q2023 market recap and what may lie ahead in the remainder of 2023.

Easing inflation pressures and a resolution of the fiscal turmoil in the United Kingdom fueled a strong rally in stocks and bonds early in the fourth quarter, but hawkish Fed guidance, disappointing economic data, and rising global bond yields weighed on markets in December and the S&P 500 finished the fourth quarter with only modest gains that capped the worst year for the index since 2008. Learn more about 2022, what actions we took on McKinley Carter portfolios, and our outlook for 2023.

Sailing through rough seas is a frightening experience that feels like it will never end. Fortunately, rough seas eventually give way to calmer waters and a more comfortable sailing experience. Coming off strong stock performance for several years, the stock market has endured its own stormy seas this year with a significant pullback in 2022 as global economic concerns brought about by multi-decade highs in inflation, rising interest rates, and the war in Ukraine, have crushed investor optimism. We’ve experienced an unusual phenomenon this year – the simultaneous decline of stock and bond markets. Throughout the third quarter, investors’ concerns focused on global instability, rising prices and the possibility that central bank efforts to tame inflation would cause economic growth to falter. The result has been tremendous volatility in stock and bond markets. Learn more.

Our Senior Investment Strategist Dave Nolan provides a look back at 2Q2022 and the actions taken by McKinley Quarter. In the latter part of his investment report, Dave offers an outlook for the remainder of 2022.

Read Senior Investment Strategist Dave Nolan's first quarter review and market outlook for 2022.

Hockey's hat trick tradition is perhaps the most unique tradition in all of professional sports. For those of you that may not follow the National Hockey League as closely as other sports, a hat trick is when one player scores three goals in one game. To honor the player's performance, the hockey fans in the stands will then throw their hats onto the ice.

The stock market’s version of hockey’s hat trick is the double-digit performance of the S&P 500 over the past three years: 2021 = 28.70% | 2020 = 18.40% | 2019 = 31.49%. Read more of our analysis of 4Q2021 and a look ahead to 2022.

The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs again in the third quarter as investors looked past a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and instead focused on the positive combination of a resilient economic recovery, ongoing historic support from the Federal Reserve, and strong corporate earnings. Market volatility did pick up notably during the final few weeks of September however, reminding investors that the transition to a post-pandemic “new normal” isn’t always going to be smooth. We dig deeper into performance and outline the actions we took in McKinley Carter portfolios, plus provide our best-thinking on what's ahead.

Looking back, the S&P 500 had a strong second quarter thanks to numerous positive developments that led to a “Goldilocks” economic environment. We dig deeper into performance and outline the actions we took in McKinley Carter portfolios, plus provide an outlook for the remainder of 2021.