In the Terminator movie franchise, the third installment was titled Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines and continued the original movie’s theme of how the growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI) would ultimately lead to the end of civilization, as AI would discover that it no longer had need of humans. Fortunately, as AI is still in its infancy, the stock market is pricing in only the positive aspects of the technology. While graphic chips provider Nvidia (up 82% in Q1) has served as the poster child for Artificial Intelligence investments, many other technology companies (such as Super Micro Computer – up 255% in Q1) with some connection, or perceived connection, to AI rallied strongly in the first quarter. This led to an overall positive market sentiment throughout the period that lifted the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 higher.

Ultimately, we believe the most powerful trend in AI will be the productivity enhancements experienced by many companies across a wide swath of industries. Read more about our thoughts on market trends and our look ahead to the remainder of 2024.

"Elvis has left the building" is a phrase that was often used by public address announcers at the conclusion of Elvis Presley concerts in order to disperse audiences who lingered in hopes of an encore.

With that in mind, we believe that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has strongly hinted that when it comes to the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle that began in March of 2022, Elvis (future rate hikes) has now “left the building.”

Read more about Senior Investment Strategist Dave Nolan's 4Q2023 market review and what may be ahead for 2024.

As Socrates once said, “Awareness of ignorance is the beginning of wisdom.” If you recognize a lack of proficiency, don’t be afraid to educate yourself. Of course, we all know we can’t be experts on every topic, but gaining a basic understanding that will help you ask the right questions will benefit you in the long run.

Personal finance is no different. Dismiss the notion that "the world of finance is a guy’s thing” and become more proactive about learning the basics. It will truly benefit your personal financial freedom! Check out these basic Investing 101 terms.

As a kid, I always enjoyed Halloween. I would dress up in some particularly fun costume, usually something scary. As I went from house to house gathering candy with my friends, I would often see someone’s carved pumpkin lying in the road, clearly a victim of some hooligan’s prank. It was a reminder that, even in good times, negative influences exist around us.

Today, as we approach the Halloween holiday, we wonder whether the rest of the year will find our meticulously carved pumpkin (stock and bond) portfolios smashed on Wall Street. Just as we see on Halloween, there are now many frightening and disturbing “tricks” in the economy today, and we’re hoping to safely make it home (the end of the year) to enjoy what “treats” we hope to have in our investment bags.

Since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March of 2022, there has been a pitched battle of “chicken” between the Fed and the average consumer. The Fed began raising rates about a year after inflation started a dramatic climb to its highest level in some 41 years. Those rate hikes have amounted to five percentage points on the Fed's benchmark to a level not seen since 2007. As a result, all sorts of loans tied to short-term interest rates have skyrocketed. These include credit card rates, home equity lines of credit, car loans, personal loans, and business loans.

The Fed has done its best to force higher borrowing rates on individuals and corporations in the hope that meaningful layoffs will follow, thus driving inflation down over time by lessening demand for products and services. What the Fed did not count on was the resilience of the U.S. consumer, who is experiencing solid wage growth and continues to spend on travel and dining out. Learn more about 2Q2023 and what may be ahead in remainder of 2023.

The S&P 500 ended the first quarter of 2023 with a solid gain as hopes for an economic “soft landing” gave confidence to investors that enough damage had been done to stock prices in 2022 and that the Federal Reserve would soon stop moving the interest rate “goal posts.” However, stock and bond markets were volatile during the period as investors wrestled with the Fed’s ongoing proclamations regarding the timing and magnitude of further interest rate hikes. Despite the biggest bank failures since the financial crisis taking place during the quarter, Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained his hawkish position regarding inflation and the need to further tighten financial conditions to curb consumer demand for goods and services. Read more from Senior Investment Strategist Dave Nolan on his 1Q2023 market recap and what may lie ahead in the remainder of 2023.

Easing inflation pressures and a resolution of the fiscal turmoil in the United Kingdom fueled a strong rally in stocks and bonds early in the fourth quarter, but hawkish Fed guidance, disappointing economic data, and rising global bond yields weighed on markets in December and the S&P 500 finished the fourth quarter with only modest gains that capped the worst year for the index since 2008. Learn more about 2022, what actions we took on McKinley Carter portfolios, and our outlook for 2023.

Sailing through rough seas is a frightening experience that feels like it will never end. Fortunately, rough seas eventually give way to calmer waters and a more comfortable sailing experience. Coming off strong stock performance for several years, the stock market has endured its own stormy seas this year with a significant pullback in 2022 as global economic concerns brought about by multi-decade highs in inflation, rising interest rates, and the war in Ukraine, have crushed investor optimism. We’ve experienced an unusual phenomenon this year – the simultaneous decline of stock and bond markets. Throughout the third quarter, investors’ concerns focused on global instability, rising prices and the possibility that central bank efforts to tame inflation would cause economic growth to falter. The result has been tremendous volatility in stock and bond markets. Learn more.

Our Senior Investment Strategist Dave Nolan provides a look back at 2Q2022 and the actions taken by McKinley Quarter. In the latter part of his investment report, Dave offers an outlook for the remainder of 2022.