Since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March of 2022, there has been a pitched battle of “chicken” between the Fed and the average consumer. The Fed began raising rates about a year after inflation started a dramatic climb to its highest level in some 41 years. Those rate hikes have amounted to five percentage points on the Fed's benchmark to a level not seen since 2007. As a result, all sorts of loans tied to short-term interest rates have skyrocketed. These include credit card rates, home equity lines of credit, car loans, personal loans, and business loans.

The Fed has done its best to force higher borrowing rates on individuals and corporations in the hope that meaningful layoffs will follow, thus driving inflation down over time by lessening demand for products and services. What the Fed did not count on was the resilience of the U.S. consumer, who is experiencing solid wage growth and continues to spend on travel and dining out. Learn more about 2Q2023 and what may be ahead in remainder of 2023.

The S&P 500 ended the first quarter of 2023 with a solid gain as hopes for an economic “soft landing” gave confidence to investors that enough damage had been done to stock prices in 2022 and that the Federal Reserve would soon stop moving the interest rate “goal posts.” However, stock and bond markets were volatile during the period as investors wrestled with the Fed’s ongoing proclamations regarding the timing and magnitude of further interest rate hikes. Despite the biggest bank failures since the financial crisis taking place during the quarter, Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained his hawkish position regarding inflation and the need to further tighten financial conditions to curb consumer demand for goods and services. Read more from Senior Investment Strategist Dave Nolan on his 1Q2023 market recap and what may lie ahead in the remainder of 2023.

Easing inflation pressures and a resolution of the fiscal turmoil in the United Kingdom fueled a strong rally in stocks and bonds early in the fourth quarter, but hawkish Fed guidance, disappointing economic data, and rising global bond yields weighed on markets in December and the S&P 500 finished the fourth quarter with only modest gains that capped the worst year for the index since 2008. Learn more about 2022, what actions we took on McKinley Carter portfolios, and our outlook for 2023.